I am writing this from Warsaw, where I am attending a Nato conference.
The military, security and political figures here have been clear to me about their fears that Vladimir Putin – who is losing 6,000 more troops in Ukraine every month than he can recruit, according to Western intelligence – is seriously considering doing something crazy.
‘It’s a question of when, not if,’ as a senior Baltic security source put it to me last night.
In short, the concern is that Putin is about to stage a direct ‘provocation’ with a Nato country, most likely one of the Baltic states of Estonia,
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